Many people report that they would rather die than give a speech at a wedding or at a business conference. The idea of standing in front of hundreds or even thousands of people is often too fearful to seriously contemplate. If being rejected by one person is bad enough imagine forgetting the words to your speech or mixing up the name of the bride and groom. Imagine the social rejection by hundreds of people simultaneously! To compound the disaster, your speech maybe recorded on video and so future generations may get to experience your humiliation many times over.
When social interaction is anticipated the perceived fear maybe so great that suffers start to experience physical discomfort such as sweating, increased heart rate and trembling. The person may conjure up a range of possible embarrassing scenarios and come to the conclusion that it is so much safer just to stay away from the social event. This is a fantastic strategy as avoidance is almost guaranteed to reduce the risk of social humiliation down to zero. The resultant feeling of safety and comfort simply reinforces the avoidance behaviour and soon the individual start to avoid even small social situations such as shopping and having coffee with friends.
Just as you or I would decide not jump from a plane because it could lead to serious injury, so people with social phobia conclude that staying at home is the emotionally safest thing to do. Social phobia comes to the attention of psychologists usually when it impacts on the person’s everyday work and play activities. Social phobia impacts on the very core of our existence and that is human relationships. The effects are felt with the person’s career, wealth, social life and family connections.
Ironically people with social phobia find it difficult to seek help for the simple reason that it often involves social contact with doctors, psychiatrists, psychologists and counsellors.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Sunday, January 25, 2009
The Essence of Human Relationship
“Human relationships always help us to carry on because they always presuppose further developments, a future and also because we live as if our only task was precisely to have relationships with other people.” Albert Camus. By virtue of being a human being, we have to play various role at different point of time, and this role is popularly called as 'Human Relationship'. The reason behind to name it as a role is – at different point of time a person has to play a different role with different people, and it is named as different name such as the relationship of - mother and her offspring, father and his offspring, siblings, husband and wife, friends etc. The same person act differently with different person, depends upon the relationship.
Therefore, this World is a huge stage and we all people are the actors playing our roles. We people do not leave our natural life rather always in constrain of relationship and bound to act accordingly. And this constrain is a bond, binds all persons together, give the definite shape and path, real and rational meaning of life otherwise, life would by chaotic and there would not be any order in the society. Hence, the human relationship is a great weapon with us to protect ourselves from all external threats either offend by a human being itself or by any other creatures or natural calamity.
Nevertheless, there is also some sort of relationships among animals but the area and length are very limited. The sense of social feelings is very small, but among human beings, it is eternal and not bound with particular relationship rather universal in nature: or in other words – animals have 'affectionate relationship' and human beings have 'love relationship'. The difference between these two words is – affection simply means 'love for only own persons, group, community etc. but love means affection for all, and not bound with only respective group or community, region or country. Walt Disney's quote has very beautifully corroborated my this sentence - “There is great comfort and inspiration in the feeling of close human relationships and its bearing on our mutual fortunes – a powerful force, to overcome the “tough breaks” which are certain to come to most of us from time to time.”
By giving this much of explanations, I can say it that the human relationship keeps too much importance in human being's life. It not only teaches the manners and etiquettes but also civilizes the person adequately in order to protect himself and his society as well. In general, the person who deprived of these relationships is found malnourished. Most of his/her behaviours are not acceptable by society. I mean to say, all sorts of delinquencies and other petty crimes are only due to frustration of relationship. The frustrated relationship restrains total development of respective person; subsequently, he/she is unable to understand his/her role in the society and takes wrong path.
In spite of having this much of importance of human relationship, people some time due to some external pressure behaves very irrationally and ready to breaks it up. The break up of relationship is not good for any body at any cost. Moreover, it is very much important in our life because all emotions, feelings, and consciences are cocooned under the word human relationship. Therefore, in order to armored ourselves, we have to have carry on our relationship properly, because its break up is insalubrious not only for the concerning person but also threat for society. To build a building takes too much time but to abolish it, hardly a matter of an hour, I mean, living in relationship is a bit difficult task and to break it up – is very easy. So, it's depend upon you people which task adopt.
Moreover, before stopping my pen, I want to quote Hugh Walpole's words i.e. “The most wonderful of all things in life, I believe, is the discovery of another human being with whom one's relationship has a growing depth, beauty, and joy as the years increase. This inner progressiveness of love between two human beings is a most marvelous thing;it cannot be found by looking for it or by passionately wishing for it. It is a sort of divine accident, and the most wonderful of all things in life.”
Therefore, this World is a huge stage and we all people are the actors playing our roles. We people do not leave our natural life rather always in constrain of relationship and bound to act accordingly. And this constrain is a bond, binds all persons together, give the definite shape and path, real and rational meaning of life otherwise, life would by chaotic and there would not be any order in the society. Hence, the human relationship is a great weapon with us to protect ourselves from all external threats either offend by a human being itself or by any other creatures or natural calamity.
Nevertheless, there is also some sort of relationships among animals but the area and length are very limited. The sense of social feelings is very small, but among human beings, it is eternal and not bound with particular relationship rather universal in nature: or in other words – animals have 'affectionate relationship' and human beings have 'love relationship'. The difference between these two words is – affection simply means 'love for only own persons, group, community etc. but love means affection for all, and not bound with only respective group or community, region or country. Walt Disney's quote has very beautifully corroborated my this sentence - “There is great comfort and inspiration in the feeling of close human relationships and its bearing on our mutual fortunes – a powerful force, to overcome the “tough breaks” which are certain to come to most of us from time to time.”
By giving this much of explanations, I can say it that the human relationship keeps too much importance in human being's life. It not only teaches the manners and etiquettes but also civilizes the person adequately in order to protect himself and his society as well. In general, the person who deprived of these relationships is found malnourished. Most of his/her behaviours are not acceptable by society. I mean to say, all sorts of delinquencies and other petty crimes are only due to frustration of relationship. The frustrated relationship restrains total development of respective person; subsequently, he/she is unable to understand his/her role in the society and takes wrong path.
In spite of having this much of importance of human relationship, people some time due to some external pressure behaves very irrationally and ready to breaks it up. The break up of relationship is not good for any body at any cost. Moreover, it is very much important in our life because all emotions, feelings, and consciences are cocooned under the word human relationship. Therefore, in order to armored ourselves, we have to have carry on our relationship properly, because its break up is insalubrious not only for the concerning person but also threat for society. To build a building takes too much time but to abolish it, hardly a matter of an hour, I mean, living in relationship is a bit difficult task and to break it up – is very easy. So, it's depend upon you people which task adopt.
Moreover, before stopping my pen, I want to quote Hugh Walpole's words i.e. “The most wonderful of all things in life, I believe, is the discovery of another human being with whom one's relationship has a growing depth, beauty, and joy as the years increase. This inner progressiveness of love between two human beings is a most marvelous thing;it cannot be found by looking for it or by passionately wishing for it. It is a sort of divine accident, and the most wonderful of all things in life.”
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Something Behind Success
SOMETHING BEHIND SUCCESS
“Every stone has a beautiful sculpture in it, if we break the stone the sculpture does not come out of it, the stone has to be sculptured with great patience. In the same way everyman has a great power, it has to be utilized properly. Other wise man lives like a stone”.
The weapons, which take us towards success, are with us. But unfortunately. We do not utilize them. Tension, fear, inferiorly complex, insecure feeling stop us from utilizing the power. However, we can perish all these negative complexes with our weapons concentration, will power and hard work.
Sofar we know only about “Positive thinking” and “Negative thinking” but great psychologist Robert skuller introduced a new word Possibility thinking. He divided the life in to three parts. They are,
· From imagination to Work
· From failure to Success
· Success to Continuous Success.
Imagination is the abode of novelty. Every novelty creates a sensation. Indian former president and scientist Abdul Kalam says “Dare to dream strive to achieve it”. Rite brothers dreamt of flying in the air, it was materialized with their hard work and willpower. Here we have to keep one thing in our mind that our dream has to be materialized otherwise it remains as a symbol of laziness.
If money is lost, nothing is lost but courage is lost everything lost. Lessons from failure are very valuable. Failures are steps to success. If we take failures positively they becomes our steps towards victory.
Every one feels victory is the ultimate goal, but I do not agree. What I feel is that, success has only commas but not a full stop.
To become a successful man what we have to do.
We have to introspect our self. Our way of thinking is always good for us but introspection reveals what we are. Of course, we may satisfy with our present position, but trying for the best is the correct way towards success. For example, a man who habituated to steep without air conditioner can enjoy if he gets an air conditioner and he tastes a different feeling. That feeling is happiness, which is the result of success.
Generally, metal detectors are used in airports and other important places to find out dangerous instruments like, knives and pistols. In the same way, we have to create a mental detector to save ourselves from wrong thinking. The mental detector teaches us to observe the things around us in different and positive way.
Most of the people believe in something and they cannot come out of the feeling or belief, and he consoles himself with the word satisfaction. If the satisfaction is disguised, that is the indication of failure.
We can understand the metaphysical emptiness of human being with the following example.
A discussion between a homemaker and a psychologist
Homemaker : My life is so boring; I feel some times to kill myself
Psychologist : Do you have any Problems?
Homemake : No,
Psychologist : How many children you have?
Homemake :Two, my husband is an Insurance Agent. We don’t have any economical problems. He is always busy with his work.
Psychologist : What are your hobbies? How you relax.
Homemake : I watch T.V.
Psychologist : How many hours
Homemake : A few hour? But I feel bore.
Psychologist : Do you read books?
Homemake : No, I feel bore to read.
Psychologist : How do you spend your day?
Homemaker : Chatting with someone, taking lunch and dinner and going to bed.
The Homemaker in the example leading an ordinary life. In her every word we find
dissatisfaction with her life. The only reason behind her metaphysical emptiness is that
she does not use her mental detector. She unable to lead happy life without having
neither a goal or taste of life. She does not know what she is.
A person who walks in the old paths does not find any new things. I did n’t do this
type of work earliar. This type of arguements are not praiseworthy. Einestene started his
life with simple calculations. Stefen Hawkings, a back bone fractured patient, he even
unable to move his legs and hands, but he wrote many a book on black holes and on the
universe. These people awakened their inner powers, went on doing something
without a doubt of failure.
To be frank, we can be inspired even from small things. Newton inspired from
the falling of an apple. He has seen the falling of the apple in different angle and
developed a Theory of Gravity. So what I meant to say is that let us prepare with our
Mental detector to mould our Lifestyle
“Every stone has a beautiful sculpture in it, if we break the stone the sculpture does not come out of it, the stone has to be sculptured with great patience. In the same way everyman has a great power, it has to be utilized properly. Other wise man lives like a stone”.
The weapons, which take us towards success, are with us. But unfortunately. We do not utilize them. Tension, fear, inferiorly complex, insecure feeling stop us from utilizing the power. However, we can perish all these negative complexes with our weapons concentration, will power and hard work.
Sofar we know only about “Positive thinking” and “Negative thinking” but great psychologist Robert skuller introduced a new word Possibility thinking. He divided the life in to three parts. They are,
· From imagination to Work
· From failure to Success
· Success to Continuous Success.
Imagination is the abode of novelty. Every novelty creates a sensation. Indian former president and scientist Abdul Kalam says “Dare to dream strive to achieve it”. Rite brothers dreamt of flying in the air, it was materialized with their hard work and willpower. Here we have to keep one thing in our mind that our dream has to be materialized otherwise it remains as a symbol of laziness.
If money is lost, nothing is lost but courage is lost everything lost. Lessons from failure are very valuable. Failures are steps to success. If we take failures positively they becomes our steps towards victory.
Every one feels victory is the ultimate goal, but I do not agree. What I feel is that, success has only commas but not a full stop.
To become a successful man what we have to do.
We have to introspect our self. Our way of thinking is always good for us but introspection reveals what we are. Of course, we may satisfy with our present position, but trying for the best is the correct way towards success. For example, a man who habituated to steep without air conditioner can enjoy if he gets an air conditioner and he tastes a different feeling. That feeling is happiness, which is the result of success.
Generally, metal detectors are used in airports and other important places to find out dangerous instruments like, knives and pistols. In the same way, we have to create a mental detector to save ourselves from wrong thinking. The mental detector teaches us to observe the things around us in different and positive way.
Most of the people believe in something and they cannot come out of the feeling or belief, and he consoles himself with the word satisfaction. If the satisfaction is disguised, that is the indication of failure.
We can understand the metaphysical emptiness of human being with the following example.
A discussion between a homemaker and a psychologist
Homemaker : My life is so boring; I feel some times to kill myself
Psychologist : Do you have any Problems?
Homemake : No,
Psychologist : How many children you have?
Homemake :Two, my husband is an Insurance Agent. We don’t have any economical problems. He is always busy with his work.
Psychologist : What are your hobbies? How you relax.
Homemake : I watch T.V.
Psychologist : How many hours
Homemake : A few hour? But I feel bore.
Psychologist : Do you read books?
Homemake : No, I feel bore to read.
Psychologist : How do you spend your day?
Homemaker : Chatting with someone, taking lunch and dinner and going to bed.
The Homemaker in the example leading an ordinary life. In her every word we find
dissatisfaction with her life. The only reason behind her metaphysical emptiness is that
she does not use her mental detector. She unable to lead happy life without having
neither a goal or taste of life. She does not know what she is.
A person who walks in the old paths does not find any new things. I did n’t do this
type of work earliar. This type of arguements are not praiseworthy. Einestene started his
life with simple calculations. Stefen Hawkings, a back bone fractured patient, he even
unable to move his legs and hands, but he wrote many a book on black holes and on the
universe. These people awakened their inner powers, went on doing something
without a doubt of failure.
To be frank, we can be inspired even from small things. Newton inspired from
the falling of an apple. He has seen the falling of the apple in different angle and
developed a Theory of Gravity. So what I meant to say is that let us prepare with our
Mental detector to mould our Lifestyle
Saturday, January 17, 2009
How to break free from the single trap: seven tips[Part 2]
What is the best predictor for whether two people will be attracted? When I put this question to acquaintances, there was a clear consensus: looks. Yet if you look around your own circle of friends, you will find ordinary and even plain people who are never short of dates, and gorgeous ones who seem doomed to remain single. So what’s going on? Fortunately, social psychologists have always been fascinated by what attracts people to each other and the key predictor is not looks but the sheer amount of contact time. We expect to be attracted to the unknown, but are most likely to fall for the known. Social psychologists have found a second key predictor of mutual attraction: similarity. Although we might occasionally like a challenge, ultimately we choose someone similar in one or more of the following ways: attitudes, personality, demographic characteristics and lifestyle. So how do you move from a spark of interest for someone you see on a regular basis to a relationship? Becoming open-hearted Contrary to many people’s expectations, personality is more important than looks in attracting a partner; students were asked to rate qualities in possible mates, and the results were: 1) Kind and considerate; 2) Socially exciting; 3) Artistic/intelligent; 4) Easy-going/adaptable.
So how do you come across as open-hearted? Smile: This will not only make you seem warm but approachable too. Maintain good eye contact — people who cannot look us directly in the eye are considered to be lying. Be positive: We like people who make us feel good about the world, and ourselves. Appear interested: This includes nodding the head, repeating back key phrases and, most powerful of all, identifying feelings (“you must have been horrified”).
4. Flirting
If you have been out of the singles game for a while, flirting can be particularly daunting. In essence, there are three key ingredients to successful flirting: encouraging body language, easy-flowing conversation and confidence.
Encouraging body language Leaning slightly towards someone — although not too close — shows interest. Nodding signals not only encouragement but also demonstrates involvement in the story that you’re being told. Blinking can also set a romantic mood. We blink every two or three seconds and increasing the rate will increase your partner’s too. Conversely slowing down a blink can be sexually attractive as it mimics a wink. Mirroring — matching your body posture to someone else’s — can amplify intimacy.
Easy-flowing conversation Value small talk: It’s a good way of warming up for a more interesting conversation and provides a breathing space to relax. When using small talk add extra conversational hooks: “At least the rain will bring on things in my allotment.” Look for areas of conversational connection. Echo the other person’s language. Don’t block topics A rant against dogs fouling the pavements will not build rapport. Never underestimate the importance of asking questions. A good listener will always be appreciated.
Confidence We like confident, outgoing people Make a list of three things under the following headings — parts of my body that I like; positive aspects of my personality; past achievements; past compliments and my potential. Check your language in case you are unknowingly running yourself down. Be upbeat: When you are interested and excited, your face muscles become more animated and more attractive. Confidence is not about being perfect. It comes from knowledge and experience, and through achieving small goals.
5. Taking a risk
When adopting this mixing skill, the first job is to reconsider people that you already know but have dismissed on possibly spurious grounds. John T.Molloy found that 20 per cent of the women he interviewed coming out of a marriage bureau had not liked their intended when they first met him. However, something made them reconsider and take a risk. The second way of taking a risk is to suspend judgment for longer and give your unconscious time to breathe and decide. If you have been thinking about someone in a new way, it is probably time to see more of them. This might be officially seen as a date, or possibly an extension of your normal routine. I would suggest you follow these guidelines:
No introspection on the date :Just enjoy the moment. Let the experience brew: Try to avoid making a judgment and instead sleep on it. Ultimately, your unconscious will tell you if there is a true match But your unconscious can talk only if you are prepared to listen — and that’s impossible if you’re too busy analysing. By waiting until the next morning, you will have avoided the snap judgment and stretched your normal window of decision-making.
6. Do as you would be done by
We frequently judge on the most superficial grounds, but demand that others consider our character and personality, not just our looks, weight and bank balance. If men knew the problems of women (who have traditionally supposed to wait to be asked) and women knew men’s fears (looking foolish), we would be kinder. These are the new rules of seeing someone: Both men and women have an equal opportunity to ask each other out. The policy should be, generally, to accept an invitation. First outings should be small events. If you promise to call or contact, it is your responsibility to do so. Whoever suggests the outing pays.
7. Be philosophical
Although we think of philosophy as being dominated by dead men with beards, it is in essence about making sense of the world around us. We have to accept the things over which we have no control and concentrate on what we can influence: our own behaviour. This means embracing all of the seven skills of mixing and, in particular, taking a risk. Sometimes when we stop trying to control — and when we least expect it — love comes to us.
So how do you come across as open-hearted? Smile: This will not only make you seem warm but approachable too. Maintain good eye contact — people who cannot look us directly in the eye are considered to be lying. Be positive: We like people who make us feel good about the world, and ourselves. Appear interested: This includes nodding the head, repeating back key phrases and, most powerful of all, identifying feelings (“you must have been horrified”).
4. Flirting
If you have been out of the singles game for a while, flirting can be particularly daunting. In essence, there are three key ingredients to successful flirting: encouraging body language, easy-flowing conversation and confidence.
Encouraging body language Leaning slightly towards someone — although not too close — shows interest. Nodding signals not only encouragement but also demonstrates involvement in the story that you’re being told. Blinking can also set a romantic mood. We blink every two or three seconds and increasing the rate will increase your partner’s too. Conversely slowing down a blink can be sexually attractive as it mimics a wink. Mirroring — matching your body posture to someone else’s — can amplify intimacy.
Easy-flowing conversation Value small talk: It’s a good way of warming up for a more interesting conversation and provides a breathing space to relax. When using small talk add extra conversational hooks: “At least the rain will bring on things in my allotment.” Look for areas of conversational connection. Echo the other person’s language. Don’t block topics A rant against dogs fouling the pavements will not build rapport. Never underestimate the importance of asking questions. A good listener will always be appreciated.
Confidence We like confident, outgoing people Make a list of three things under the following headings — parts of my body that I like; positive aspects of my personality; past achievements; past compliments and my potential. Check your language in case you are unknowingly running yourself down. Be upbeat: When you are interested and excited, your face muscles become more animated and more attractive. Confidence is not about being perfect. It comes from knowledge and experience, and through achieving small goals.
5. Taking a risk
When adopting this mixing skill, the first job is to reconsider people that you already know but have dismissed on possibly spurious grounds. John T.Molloy found that 20 per cent of the women he interviewed coming out of a marriage bureau had not liked their intended when they first met him. However, something made them reconsider and take a risk. The second way of taking a risk is to suspend judgment for longer and give your unconscious time to breathe and decide. If you have been thinking about someone in a new way, it is probably time to see more of them. This might be officially seen as a date, or possibly an extension of your normal routine. I would suggest you follow these guidelines:
No introspection on the date :Just enjoy the moment. Let the experience brew: Try to avoid making a judgment and instead sleep on it. Ultimately, your unconscious will tell you if there is a true match But your unconscious can talk only if you are prepared to listen — and that’s impossible if you’re too busy analysing. By waiting until the next morning, you will have avoided the snap judgment and stretched your normal window of decision-making.
6. Do as you would be done by
We frequently judge on the most superficial grounds, but demand that others consider our character and personality, not just our looks, weight and bank balance. If men knew the problems of women (who have traditionally supposed to wait to be asked) and women knew men’s fears (looking foolish), we would be kinder. These are the new rules of seeing someone: Both men and women have an equal opportunity to ask each other out. The policy should be, generally, to accept an invitation. First outings should be small events. If you promise to call or contact, it is your responsibility to do so. Whoever suggests the outing pays.
7. Be philosophical
Although we think of philosophy as being dominated by dead men with beards, it is in essence about making sense of the world around us. We have to accept the things over which we have no control and concentrate on what we can influence: our own behaviour. This means embracing all of the seven skills of mixing and, in particular, taking a risk. Sometimes when we stop trying to control — and when we least expect it — love comes to us.
How to break free from the single trap: seven tips[part one]
Over the past 30 years the proportion of one-person households has almost doubled and by next year the Government forecasts that the single-person home will be the most common type of household.
For some, being single is no longer a natural phase between the end of one relationship and the beginning of another but somewhere they have become trapped. In my new book The Single Trap I look at the underlying causes: how the internet might provide more choice but makes it harder to choose; how having divorced parents makes it more difficult to trust; and the social changes that mean we meet fewer prospective partners.
However, it is possible to break free from the single trap. The first step is to take a fresh look at yourself. Often the very things that we think protect us from getting hurt make it harder for new people to come into our lives and because like attracts like it is important to balance ourselves. The second step involves changing the way that we search for love, to become more open-minded, learning the art of mixing and making more fulfilling emotional connections, as the extract on the facing page shows.
In my work as a marital therapist I always start by taking a history of my client’s relationships. Most people knew each other casually, or even distantly, before going out together. Work has been another low-risk way to meet people; other couples have a shared interest. The key advantage of meeting someone casually — as a friend of a friend, through work or sharing a hobby — is that all the defences are down. You are not meeting a potential life partner, but chatting for 30 seconds waiting for the lift. The stakes are so low there is no need for game-playing and you are more likely to be yourself.
What I’m suggesting in effect is a return to the roots of British courting: parading, mixing, and saying “how do you do?” At parties, it’s not looking for a partner but for an interesting conversation, which might lead to a recommendation for an art exhibition and getting talking to someone else at the gallery. It’s about joining a poetry class, not to find a potential date, but because you love words and then going to a classmate’s coffee-shop performance and being introduced to someone from his or her workplace.
Mixing is about being open to new ideas, new opportunities and ultimately new people. The good news is that not only will these seven skills opposite help you to meet more people, they will also undo some of the bad habits acquired through dating.
THE SEVEN STEPS TO FINDING A PARTNER
1. Riding the flow
Have you ever been so wrapped up in something that when you looked at your watch, time had evaporated? Psychologists call this “riding the flow”. Not only is it extremely pleasurable, but your mood is expansive, tolerant and creative. Even better, we forget ourselves and are less self-conscious and self-critical. Not only is this the perfect state of mind to meet a partner, but the chances are increased dramatically; happy people are a pleasure to be around. People get more satisfaction from activities outside work — the most common examples are sport or exercise, or satisfaction could come from joining a choir or volunteering. So how do you find your own personal flow? It must be something you find personally rewarding and which maintains your interest. Set yourself small, realistic goals. It is better to aim at learning 20 French words a week than to speak French in time for your holiday. Seek to help others rather than just looking after number one. You will reap the personal benefits. Research shows that volunteering is the second greatest source of joy, after dancing, and a good way of meeting people. As your aim is to find a partner, look for ways to flow with other people. If hours disappear when you are playing the piano, accompany the local amateur dramatic society. If you enjoy squash, join a league.
2. Six degrees of separation
Frigyes Karinthy, a Hungarian author, claimed that we can link ourselves to any other human being on Earth using no more than five intermediaries, one of whom is a personal acquaintance. The idea was tested in a Sixties experiment by a social psychologist who mailed random people and asked them to forward a parcel to someone who might forward it closer to the final recipient. The average number of times the parcel was forwarded was six. But what does all this mean for mixing and finding your ideal partner? Firstly, the more friends and acquaintances, the greater chances of meeting him or her. Market researcher John T. Molloy interviewed 2,500 couples and found that women about to marry knew significantly more people than women with no proposal in sight. Secondly, six degrees of separation underlines how important it is to take every opportunity to talk to people. Look back at your previous partners. How many times did you meet someone who was a friend of a friend? Even if you met by chance, did you have acquaintances in common
For some, being single is no longer a natural phase between the end of one relationship and the beginning of another but somewhere they have become trapped. In my new book The Single Trap I look at the underlying causes: how the internet might provide more choice but makes it harder to choose; how having divorced parents makes it more difficult to trust; and the social changes that mean we meet fewer prospective partners.
However, it is possible to break free from the single trap. The first step is to take a fresh look at yourself. Often the very things that we think protect us from getting hurt make it harder for new people to come into our lives and because like attracts like it is important to balance ourselves. The second step involves changing the way that we search for love, to become more open-minded, learning the art of mixing and making more fulfilling emotional connections, as the extract on the facing page shows.
In my work as a marital therapist I always start by taking a history of my client’s relationships. Most people knew each other casually, or even distantly, before going out together. Work has been another low-risk way to meet people; other couples have a shared interest. The key advantage of meeting someone casually — as a friend of a friend, through work or sharing a hobby — is that all the defences are down. You are not meeting a potential life partner, but chatting for 30 seconds waiting for the lift. The stakes are so low there is no need for game-playing and you are more likely to be yourself.
What I’m suggesting in effect is a return to the roots of British courting: parading, mixing, and saying “how do you do?” At parties, it’s not looking for a partner but for an interesting conversation, which might lead to a recommendation for an art exhibition and getting talking to someone else at the gallery. It’s about joining a poetry class, not to find a potential date, but because you love words and then going to a classmate’s coffee-shop performance and being introduced to someone from his or her workplace.
Mixing is about being open to new ideas, new opportunities and ultimately new people. The good news is that not only will these seven skills opposite help you to meet more people, they will also undo some of the bad habits acquired through dating.
THE SEVEN STEPS TO FINDING A PARTNER
1. Riding the flow
Have you ever been so wrapped up in something that when you looked at your watch, time had evaporated? Psychologists call this “riding the flow”. Not only is it extremely pleasurable, but your mood is expansive, tolerant and creative. Even better, we forget ourselves and are less self-conscious and self-critical. Not only is this the perfect state of mind to meet a partner, but the chances are increased dramatically; happy people are a pleasure to be around. People get more satisfaction from activities outside work — the most common examples are sport or exercise, or satisfaction could come from joining a choir or volunteering. So how do you find your own personal flow? It must be something you find personally rewarding and which maintains your interest. Set yourself small, realistic goals. It is better to aim at learning 20 French words a week than to speak French in time for your holiday. Seek to help others rather than just looking after number one. You will reap the personal benefits. Research shows that volunteering is the second greatest source of joy, after dancing, and a good way of meeting people. As your aim is to find a partner, look for ways to flow with other people. If hours disappear when you are playing the piano, accompany the local amateur dramatic society. If you enjoy squash, join a league.
2. Six degrees of separation
Frigyes Karinthy, a Hungarian author, claimed that we can link ourselves to any other human being on Earth using no more than five intermediaries, one of whom is a personal acquaintance. The idea was tested in a Sixties experiment by a social psychologist who mailed random people and asked them to forward a parcel to someone who might forward it closer to the final recipient. The average number of times the parcel was forwarded was six. But what does all this mean for mixing and finding your ideal partner? Firstly, the more friends and acquaintances, the greater chances of meeting him or her. Market researcher John T. Molloy interviewed 2,500 couples and found that women about to marry knew significantly more people than women with no proposal in sight. Secondly, six degrees of separation underlines how important it is to take every opportunity to talk to people. Look back at your previous partners. How many times did you meet someone who was a friend of a friend? Even if you met by chance, did you have acquaintances in common
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
The Great Human Beings
There are/were many great human beings in Planet Earth.
They were not born as the great beings, but because of their ability and skill, they became the much appreciated human beings of the world.
Every country has such human beings who are not forgotten over generations.
Some of them are not there today, whereas some are living among us.
We try to learn about their lives, achievements and greatness.
They may be scientists, philosophers, social reformers, politicians, life saving doctors, businessmen and the like.
How they became great, is the secret everyone likes to learn so that it may help to adopt the tricks for becoming great.
Greatness comes, sometimes, because of the circumstances.
Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi – Mahatma Gandhiji – became great because of the circumstance that prevailed during his lifetime.
The British ruled India with an iron hand; the people of India was suppressed by divide and rule policy.
Gandhiji followed a simple weapon called non-violence to drive away the British and brought freedom to India.
The philosophy of non-violence brought him greatness, even after great humiliation and hardship over time.
The people of India remember him and his simple life even after 138 years.
The philosophy of non-violence adopted by Gandhiji, is being appreciated all over the world and the United Nation honoured him by declaring the birthday of Gandhiji – 2 October of every year as the International Day of Non-violence from 2007.
So we celebrated the first International Day of Non-violence on 2 October 2007.
Being one of the great human beings born in India got this honour even after his death.
We generally quote his universal thoughts wherever possible to illustrate out points of nationalism.
Once Gandhiji said: “ I shall work for an India in which the poorest shall feel that it is their country, in whose making they have an effective voice; an India in which there shall be no high class and low class of people; an India in which all communities shall live in perfect harmony.
There can be no room in such an India for the curse of untouchability, or the curse of intoxicating drinks and drugs. Women will enjoy the same rights as men. We shall be at peace with all the rest of the world. This is the India of my dream.”
That was his dream he wanted to see in reality or that was the dream he wanted the future generation to fulfill.
The Republic of India trying all its best to fulfill the dreams of Gandhiji, but they are not coming close to his dreams.
There are many reasons for this.
Our political and social systems are still controlled by caste, creed, colour, faith, language, social order of the society and many other diverse differences.
No governmental action will abolish these differences; they are deep seated in the minds of people.
“Unity in diversity” is the mantra that manages India.
No other country in the world has so many languages, religions, castes and faiths.
With all these diversity, the population pressure is mounting and brings down the progress made every time.
Gandhiji’s ideals are in everyone’s mind but not in action.
At least, we should be able to emulate a few of his high ideals in our life.
Such an action only can bring the dreams of Gandhiji a reality.
Simplicity in life is one of the ideologies of Gandhiji.
The modern world spoils the minds and bodies of today’s generation.
Because of freedom, everyone has freedom of speech, behaviour and way of life.
People who have buying power try to purchase as many material things and waste them without realizing their mistakes.
No one can correct them; not even Gandhiji’s thoughts.
Women in our country have come up almost equal to men in all fields.
They have good education, earning power and independence.
The family rearing is still the responsibility of women.
Therefore, if women think, they can easily transform the society by rearing children with discipline and character.
I feel that it is in the hands of women to revolutionize our society towards Gandhian path.
That is the reason Gandhiji dreamt ‘women will enjoy the same right as men in India.’
I hope that we realize the importance of Gandhiji’s words and try to direct our life towards a path of simplicity, peace and non-violence.
They were not born as the great beings, but because of their ability and skill, they became the much appreciated human beings of the world.
Every country has such human beings who are not forgotten over generations.
Some of them are not there today, whereas some are living among us.
We try to learn about their lives, achievements and greatness.
They may be scientists, philosophers, social reformers, politicians, life saving doctors, businessmen and the like.
How they became great, is the secret everyone likes to learn so that it may help to adopt the tricks for becoming great.
Greatness comes, sometimes, because of the circumstances.
Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi – Mahatma Gandhiji – became great because of the circumstance that prevailed during his lifetime.
The British ruled India with an iron hand; the people of India was suppressed by divide and rule policy.
Gandhiji followed a simple weapon called non-violence to drive away the British and brought freedom to India.
The philosophy of non-violence brought him greatness, even after great humiliation and hardship over time.
The people of India remember him and his simple life even after 138 years.
The philosophy of non-violence adopted by Gandhiji, is being appreciated all over the world and the United Nation honoured him by declaring the birthday of Gandhiji – 2 October of every year as the International Day of Non-violence from 2007.
So we celebrated the first International Day of Non-violence on 2 October 2007.
Being one of the great human beings born in India got this honour even after his death.
We generally quote his universal thoughts wherever possible to illustrate out points of nationalism.
Once Gandhiji said: “ I shall work for an India in which the poorest shall feel that it is their country, in whose making they have an effective voice; an India in which there shall be no high class and low class of people; an India in which all communities shall live in perfect harmony.
There can be no room in such an India for the curse of untouchability, or the curse of intoxicating drinks and drugs. Women will enjoy the same rights as men. We shall be at peace with all the rest of the world. This is the India of my dream.”
That was his dream he wanted to see in reality or that was the dream he wanted the future generation to fulfill.
The Republic of India trying all its best to fulfill the dreams of Gandhiji, but they are not coming close to his dreams.
There are many reasons for this.
Our political and social systems are still controlled by caste, creed, colour, faith, language, social order of the society and many other diverse differences.
No governmental action will abolish these differences; they are deep seated in the minds of people.
“Unity in diversity” is the mantra that manages India.
No other country in the world has so many languages, religions, castes and faiths.
With all these diversity, the population pressure is mounting and brings down the progress made every time.
Gandhiji’s ideals are in everyone’s mind but not in action.
At least, we should be able to emulate a few of his high ideals in our life.
Such an action only can bring the dreams of Gandhiji a reality.
Simplicity in life is one of the ideologies of Gandhiji.
The modern world spoils the minds and bodies of today’s generation.
Because of freedom, everyone has freedom of speech, behaviour and way of life.
People who have buying power try to purchase as many material things and waste them without realizing their mistakes.
No one can correct them; not even Gandhiji’s thoughts.
Women in our country have come up almost equal to men in all fields.
They have good education, earning power and independence.
The family rearing is still the responsibility of women.
Therefore, if women think, they can easily transform the society by rearing children with discipline and character.
I feel that it is in the hands of women to revolutionize our society towards Gandhian path.
That is the reason Gandhiji dreamt ‘women will enjoy the same right as men in India.’
I hope that we realize the importance of Gandhiji’s words and try to direct our life towards a path of simplicity, peace and non-violence.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
The Stock Market
When it comes to stock market investing, timing is everything. The only option that exists for a successful stock market investor is to aim for the best timing for maximum profits and fewer losses. Companies issue their stocks to raise capital and invest in the business. Stocks are made available to the public so they can buy and sell them. The price of stock depends on the supply and demand involved, much like the cost of any other item. The stock market takes full advantage of the concept of supply and demand.
Getting into the business of stock market trading often yields more significant profits to investors as opposed to entering into an ordinary stock enterprise. There are a wide variety of stocks to choose from when any investor embarks upon stock trading. Among thousands of registered stocks, there is also always a moving stock out there.
Those who go about carelessly proceeding into the stock market are certain to have undesirable results. Large losses may be incurred if the market trend is not properly predicted. On the other hand, small profits are frustrating to the purpose of stock market trading and earning major money. Uninformed stock traders can wind up waiting around for a decisive moment that might not ever arrive.
Timing The Market
Investors use market timing to predict when the market will change its course. By using market timing, investors seek to avoid the negative effects of poor stock market trading. When using market timing, it is automatically presumed that the decisive point can be predicted ahead of time. By examining pertinent economic data and the price, the direction of the market is predicted to encourage more lucrative stock trading.
Having The Best Timing
The aim of those seeking to be successful at stock investing is to have the best timing. The consistency of such trend prediction is subject to a variety of factors. While market time sounds like a certain way to make big money, it is not without serious effort. Serious exertion is required involving persistence in studying various market factors and ongoing effort to remain knowledgeable about current market trends. Mere speculation must be avoided. Speculating is a desperate move used when a market timingstock investor has not done the proper homework.
Sometimes investors purchase stocks based on a hot tip they got from someone else. Unfortunately, the majority of these hot tips wind up being false since they are usually offered by parties with their own vested interests.
To have effective market time, investors must get actively involved in research about the company’s history so they can calculate the trend by charting the movement of the stock’s price. The value of the stock must be analyzed to make a fairly accurate prediction about the market trend. By using this method, investors develop standards for when to purchase and when to sell so they can accurately time their investments.
Other considerations as a stock investor include when to resell the stock purchased when it reaches peak value. With analytical research and knowledge, investors can realize maximum profits by taking calculated risks.
Getting into the business of stock market trading often yields more significant profits to investors as opposed to entering into an ordinary stock enterprise. There are a wide variety of stocks to choose from when any investor embarks upon stock trading. Among thousands of registered stocks, there is also always a moving stock out there.
Those who go about carelessly proceeding into the stock market are certain to have undesirable results. Large losses may be incurred if the market trend is not properly predicted. On the other hand, small profits are frustrating to the purpose of stock market trading and earning major money. Uninformed stock traders can wind up waiting around for a decisive moment that might not ever arrive.
Timing The Market
Investors use market timing to predict when the market will change its course. By using market timing, investors seek to avoid the negative effects of poor stock market trading. When using market timing, it is automatically presumed that the decisive point can be predicted ahead of time. By examining pertinent economic data and the price, the direction of the market is predicted to encourage more lucrative stock trading.
Having The Best Timing
The aim of those seeking to be successful at stock investing is to have the best timing. The consistency of such trend prediction is subject to a variety of factors. While market time sounds like a certain way to make big money, it is not without serious effort. Serious exertion is required involving persistence in studying various market factors and ongoing effort to remain knowledgeable about current market trends. Mere speculation must be avoided. Speculating is a desperate move used when a market timingstock investor has not done the proper homework.
Sometimes investors purchase stocks based on a hot tip they got from someone else. Unfortunately, the majority of these hot tips wind up being false since they are usually offered by parties with their own vested interests.
To have effective market time, investors must get actively involved in research about the company’s history so they can calculate the trend by charting the movement of the stock’s price. The value of the stock must be analyzed to make a fairly accurate prediction about the market trend. By using this method, investors develop standards for when to purchase and when to sell so they can accurately time their investments.
Other considerations as a stock investor include when to resell the stock purchased when it reaches peak value. With analytical research and knowledge, investors can realize maximum profits by taking calculated risks.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Dog Behaviour - Barking
Barking in dogs is a very natural thing. It's their natural way of communicating within their species and to the rest of the world. Most of the time dogs bark for reasons such as when they see a stranger approaching their territory or due to a sudden noise they cannot comprehend like a cracker or a thud. Such type of barking is good and welcomed by most dog owners.
Dogs also bark when they want attention from their owner. This type of bark tends to be very loud and continuous and the dog tends to relent from it only when it has got the attention from the person he wanted. But from the owner's point of view, these kinds of barks should not be given attention as the dog may make it a habit to bark like that every time he feels neglected. Young dogs or puppies use this type of bark the most.
Dogs may also bark when they are excited about something. Such types of barks are small and not as regular or loud as the 'attention seeking' ones. Dogs often bark this way when they are being taken for a walk or for a ride in the car or getting a treat. But remember to stop the dog if it gets a little over-excited.
You would have noticed that sometimes dogs seem to be talking to each other through their barking. Many dogs in a neighborhood start barking one after other. This is an instinctive thing for a dog and a way of informing its mates that it is also there.
But sometimes, dogs may bark uncontrollably and with no reason apparent to their owners. This type of bark seems completely un-invited and unreasonable to the humans around. Such type of behavior may be because of many reasons. The dog may be feeling sick or unloved. Sometimes dogs may also feel lonely due to the lack of interaction with other dogs. Or the reason could be that the dog is a pathological barker and has not been able to leave this habit even after domestication. Such types of dogs are not trained properly and also have discipline issues. The owner should first make sure that there are no medical reasons behind the uncontrollable barking and once sure of that should try to train and discipline the dog.
This type of abnormal barking may be because of an obsessive compulsive disorder in the dog. A dog suffering from this disorder may bark at the tiniest things and may get hyper active. Such kind of dogs need medical attention and should be given proper behavioral training.
The owners of such dogs may approach an animal behaviorist to help them in correcting the dog's behavior with other dogs and humans. The animal behaviorist will help the owners in training the dog properly and control its barking. The owner can also ask a Vet to prescribe some kind of medication to help the dog.
But the most important thing is that the owner should first identify the dog's problem. Barking is a normal thing for dogs and should not be seen as a problem unless until the dog stops listening to the owner's commands and becomes aggressive and violent.
source:articlesbase
Dogs also bark when they want attention from their owner. This type of bark tends to be very loud and continuous and the dog tends to relent from it only when it has got the attention from the person he wanted. But from the owner's point of view, these kinds of barks should not be given attention as the dog may make it a habit to bark like that every time he feels neglected. Young dogs or puppies use this type of bark the most.
Dogs may also bark when they are excited about something. Such types of barks are small and not as regular or loud as the 'attention seeking' ones. Dogs often bark this way when they are being taken for a walk or for a ride in the car or getting a treat. But remember to stop the dog if it gets a little over-excited.
You would have noticed that sometimes dogs seem to be talking to each other through their barking. Many dogs in a neighborhood start barking one after other. This is an instinctive thing for a dog and a way of informing its mates that it is also there.
But sometimes, dogs may bark uncontrollably and with no reason apparent to their owners. This type of bark seems completely un-invited and unreasonable to the humans around. Such type of behavior may be because of many reasons. The dog may be feeling sick or unloved. Sometimes dogs may also feel lonely due to the lack of interaction with other dogs. Or the reason could be that the dog is a pathological barker and has not been able to leave this habit even after domestication. Such types of dogs are not trained properly and also have discipline issues. The owner should first make sure that there are no medical reasons behind the uncontrollable barking and once sure of that should try to train and discipline the dog.
This type of abnormal barking may be because of an obsessive compulsive disorder in the dog. A dog suffering from this disorder may bark at the tiniest things and may get hyper active. Such kind of dogs need medical attention and should be given proper behavioral training.
The owners of such dogs may approach an animal behaviorist to help them in correcting the dog's behavior with other dogs and humans. The animal behaviorist will help the owners in training the dog properly and control its barking. The owner can also ask a Vet to prescribe some kind of medication to help the dog.
But the most important thing is that the owner should first identify the dog's problem. Barking is a normal thing for dogs and should not be seen as a problem unless until the dog stops listening to the owner's commands and becomes aggressive and violent.
source:articlesbase
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Random Behaviour in the Stockmarket
Over the years there have been many research projects which aimed to find out if market action was random or whether there was proof that it could be predicted on a regular basis. If you are trading the stockmarket, there would be no point in playing the game if it was purely random, and various important papers have shown a distinct repetition of patterns both in price and time cycles, which effectively confirm that market action is not random.
Charts often exhibit similar pattern behaviour in indices, forex, treasury bonds and commodities, aswell as share prices. Nevertheless, there are times when action does appear haphazard, and one explanation for this is what is called the ‘random walk theory’.
Random walks and efficient markets
There have been three main works of note which attempted to ‘explain’ random action. In 1973 Burton Malkiel wrote "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", which has become one of the most widely known investment works. The book expounded on his stock market theory in which he stated that the past movement or direction of the price of a stock or overall market could not be used to predict its future movement.
This was an extension of work carried out twenty years before, when Maurice Kendall put forward a theory that stock price fluctuations are independent of each other and have the same probability distribution, but that over a period of time, prices maintained an upward trend.
It all comes down to how ‘efficient’ the market is viewed to be, and “The Efficient Market Hypothesis” evolved in the 1960s from a Ph.D. dissertation by Eugene Fama. EMH stated that at any given time, security prices fully reflected all available information, which is a fairly radical statement.
His view was that in an active market that included many well informed and intelligent investors, securities would be appropriately priced. They would reflect all available information, and if the market was efficient, no information or analysis could be expected to result in outperformance of an appropriate benchmark. In the market, there were large numbers of competing players, with each trying to predict future market values of individual securities, and where important current information was almost freely available to all participants.
This would lead to a situation where current prices of individual securities already reflected the effects of information based both on events that have already occurred and on events which were expected to take place in the future.
Trying to dismiss technical and fundamental analysis
EMH was seen to have three forms:
The "Weak" form asserted that all past market prices and data were fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, technical analysis was of no use.
The "Semistrong" form asserted that all publicly available information was fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, fundamental analysis was of no use.
The "Strong" form asserted that all information was fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, even insider information was of no use.
Those three forms effectively dismiss all analysis as futile, whether it be technical or fundamental. Obviously when a trader takes a position, this is based on a view of mispricing in their favour, and in this respect there have been many papers proving that the market is indeed not random. A glance at chart books from the 1970s for instance often shows remarkably similar price action to that seen on current charts, and again similar patterns are often visible to forex and commodity traders.
The other view – the market is not random
A cursory glance at the long term performance of many consistent money managers would indicate that the idea of a purely random market is nonsense. There are many examples of traders who have not only made money in both bull and bear markets, but regularly beaten their respective benchmarks. To do this over a decade or more indicates more than a random distribution of performance, or indeed luck.
The problem in trying to prove that the market is not random is simply that an approach that might work for a statistically valid period of analysis may suddenly become useless once it is widely known. This is because the edge the trader might have had in pricing will be negated if many more participants influence the opening and closing prices that are achieved by their participation. The great majority of studies of technical theories have found the strategies to be completely useless in predicting very long term prices of securities, but there continue to be technical anomalies that occur regularly, and it is up to the smart trader to constantly search for that edge to ‘beat’ the market.
The other point that has been put forward by proponents of efficient markets is that if one takes a random distribution of fund managers, it is not possible for more than half to beat the respective benchmark. Because of costs, using an active manager will on average do less well than simply matching the benchmark using a passive or tracking fund. Whilst this cannot be disputed, there are two important points: first, using a long-side only tracking fund for instance will cause losses in a bear market. Second, successful money or fund mangers tend on average to continue to beat their benchmark over time, and it is possible to have the talent to beat the market in the long term. Just ask Warren Buffett.
Proof the market is not random – a simple comparison against a major theory
The New York Times on 6th Sept 1998 noted a study that was published in the US Journal of Finance by Stephen Brown of New York University, William Goetzmann of Yale, and Alok Kumar of the University of Notre Dame. They tested the widely known Dow Theory system against a simple buy-and-hold strategy for the period from 1929 to 1998 on the US stockmarket.
Over the 70-year period, the Dow Theory system outperformed the buy and hold strategy by about 2% per year. In addition, the former’s portfolio carried significantly less risk, and risk-adjusted, the margin of outperformance would have been even greater.
Another way of looking at it is to consider the markets both efficient and predictable. In a debunk of the earlier work, Lo and Mackinlay’s “A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street” book concluded that in reality, markets were neither perfectly efficient nor completely inefficient. All markets were efficient to a certain extent, some more so than others. Rather than being an issue of black or white, market efficiency was more a matter of shades of grey, and in markets with substantial impairments of efficiency, more knowledgeable investors could strive to outperform less knowledgeable ones.
Conclusion
Just like predicting the weather, which still cannot be done with any great accuracy over more than a few days, it is difficult and almost impossible to predict future share prices. There are however patterns of human behaviour which are predictable, whether these correspond to the cycle of business investment and profits, how fear and greed manifests itself, and how traders react to outside news events.
All these inputs make it possible for a dedicated CFD trader to achieve outperformance by exploiting regular market anomalies and seeking out the best probability trades.
Charts often exhibit similar pattern behaviour in indices, forex, treasury bonds and commodities, aswell as share prices. Nevertheless, there are times when action does appear haphazard, and one explanation for this is what is called the ‘random walk theory’.
Random walks and efficient markets
There have been three main works of note which attempted to ‘explain’ random action. In 1973 Burton Malkiel wrote "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", which has become one of the most widely known investment works. The book expounded on his stock market theory in which he stated that the past movement or direction of the price of a stock or overall market could not be used to predict its future movement.
This was an extension of work carried out twenty years before, when Maurice Kendall put forward a theory that stock price fluctuations are independent of each other and have the same probability distribution, but that over a period of time, prices maintained an upward trend.
It all comes down to how ‘efficient’ the market is viewed to be, and “The Efficient Market Hypothesis” evolved in the 1960s from a Ph.D. dissertation by Eugene Fama. EMH stated that at any given time, security prices fully reflected all available information, which is a fairly radical statement.
His view was that in an active market that included many well informed and intelligent investors, securities would be appropriately priced. They would reflect all available information, and if the market was efficient, no information or analysis could be expected to result in outperformance of an appropriate benchmark. In the market, there were large numbers of competing players, with each trying to predict future market values of individual securities, and where important current information was almost freely available to all participants.
This would lead to a situation where current prices of individual securities already reflected the effects of information based both on events that have already occurred and on events which were expected to take place in the future.
Trying to dismiss technical and fundamental analysis
EMH was seen to have three forms:
The "Weak" form asserted that all past market prices and data were fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, technical analysis was of no use.
The "Semistrong" form asserted that all publicly available information was fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, fundamental analysis was of no use.
The "Strong" form asserted that all information was fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, even insider information was of no use.
Those three forms effectively dismiss all analysis as futile, whether it be technical or fundamental. Obviously when a trader takes a position, this is based on a view of mispricing in their favour, and in this respect there have been many papers proving that the market is indeed not random. A glance at chart books from the 1970s for instance often shows remarkably similar price action to that seen on current charts, and again similar patterns are often visible to forex and commodity traders.
The other view – the market is not random
A cursory glance at the long term performance of many consistent money managers would indicate that the idea of a purely random market is nonsense. There are many examples of traders who have not only made money in both bull and bear markets, but regularly beaten their respective benchmarks. To do this over a decade or more indicates more than a random distribution of performance, or indeed luck.
The problem in trying to prove that the market is not random is simply that an approach that might work for a statistically valid period of analysis may suddenly become useless once it is widely known. This is because the edge the trader might have had in pricing will be negated if many more participants influence the opening and closing prices that are achieved by their participation. The great majority of studies of technical theories have found the strategies to be completely useless in predicting very long term prices of securities, but there continue to be technical anomalies that occur regularly, and it is up to the smart trader to constantly search for that edge to ‘beat’ the market.
The other point that has been put forward by proponents of efficient markets is that if one takes a random distribution of fund managers, it is not possible for more than half to beat the respective benchmark. Because of costs, using an active manager will on average do less well than simply matching the benchmark using a passive or tracking fund. Whilst this cannot be disputed, there are two important points: first, using a long-side only tracking fund for instance will cause losses in a bear market. Second, successful money or fund mangers tend on average to continue to beat their benchmark over time, and it is possible to have the talent to beat the market in the long term. Just ask Warren Buffett.
Proof the market is not random – a simple comparison against a major theory
The New York Times on 6th Sept 1998 noted a study that was published in the US Journal of Finance by Stephen Brown of New York University, William Goetzmann of Yale, and Alok Kumar of the University of Notre Dame. They tested the widely known Dow Theory system against a simple buy-and-hold strategy for the period from 1929 to 1998 on the US stockmarket.
Over the 70-year period, the Dow Theory system outperformed the buy and hold strategy by about 2% per year. In addition, the former’s portfolio carried significantly less risk, and risk-adjusted, the margin of outperformance would have been even greater.
Another way of looking at it is to consider the markets both efficient and predictable. In a debunk of the earlier work, Lo and Mackinlay’s “A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street” book concluded that in reality, markets were neither perfectly efficient nor completely inefficient. All markets were efficient to a certain extent, some more so than others. Rather than being an issue of black or white, market efficiency was more a matter of shades of grey, and in markets with substantial impairments of efficiency, more knowledgeable investors could strive to outperform less knowledgeable ones.
Conclusion
Just like predicting the weather, which still cannot be done with any great accuracy over more than a few days, it is difficult and almost impossible to predict future share prices. There are however patterns of human behaviour which are predictable, whether these correspond to the cycle of business investment and profits, how fear and greed manifests itself, and how traders react to outside news events.
All these inputs make it possible for a dedicated CFD trader to achieve outperformance by exploiting regular market anomalies and seeking out the best probability trades.
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