There are/were many great human beings in Planet Earth.
They were not born as the great beings, but because of their ability and skill, they became the much appreciated human beings of the world.
Every country has such human beings who are not forgotten over generations.
Some of them are not there today, whereas some are living among us.
We try to learn about their lives, achievements and greatness.
They may be scientists, philosophers, social reformers, politicians, life saving doctors, businessmen and the like.
How they became great, is the secret everyone likes to learn so that it may help to adopt the tricks for becoming great.
Greatness comes, sometimes, because of the circumstances.
Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi – Mahatma Gandhiji – became great because of the circumstance that prevailed during his lifetime.
The British ruled India with an iron hand; the people of India was suppressed by divide and rule policy.
Gandhiji followed a simple weapon called non-violence to drive away the British and brought freedom to India.
The philosophy of non-violence brought him greatness, even after great humiliation and hardship over time.
The people of India remember him and his simple life even after 138 years.
The philosophy of non-violence adopted by Gandhiji, is being appreciated all over the world and the United Nation honoured him by declaring the birthday of Gandhiji – 2 October of every year as the International Day of Non-violence from 2007.
So we celebrated the first International Day of Non-violence on 2 October 2007.
Being one of the great human beings born in India got this honour even after his death.
We generally quote his universal thoughts wherever possible to illustrate out points of nationalism.
Once Gandhiji said: “ I shall work for an India in which the poorest shall feel that it is their country, in whose making they have an effective voice; an India in which there shall be no high class and low class of people; an India in which all communities shall live in perfect harmony.
There can be no room in such an India for the curse of untouchability, or the curse of intoxicating drinks and drugs. Women will enjoy the same rights as men. We shall be at peace with all the rest of the world. This is the India of my dream.”
That was his dream he wanted to see in reality or that was the dream he wanted the future generation to fulfill.
The Republic of India trying all its best to fulfill the dreams of Gandhiji, but they are not coming close to his dreams.
There are many reasons for this.
Our political and social systems are still controlled by caste, creed, colour, faith, language, social order of the society and many other diverse differences.
No governmental action will abolish these differences; they are deep seated in the minds of people.
“Unity in diversity” is the mantra that manages India.
No other country in the world has so many languages, religions, castes and faiths.
With all these diversity, the population pressure is mounting and brings down the progress made every time.
Gandhiji’s ideals are in everyone’s mind but not in action.
At least, we should be able to emulate a few of his high ideals in our life.
Such an action only can bring the dreams of Gandhiji a reality.
Simplicity in life is one of the ideologies of Gandhiji.
The modern world spoils the minds and bodies of today’s generation.
Because of freedom, everyone has freedom of speech, behaviour and way of life.
People who have buying power try to purchase as many material things and waste them without realizing their mistakes.
No one can correct them; not even Gandhiji’s thoughts.
Women in our country have come up almost equal to men in all fields.
They have good education, earning power and independence.
The family rearing is still the responsibility of women.
Therefore, if women think, they can easily transform the society by rearing children with discipline and character.
I feel that it is in the hands of women to revolutionize our society towards Gandhian path.
That is the reason Gandhiji dreamt ‘women will enjoy the same right as men in India.’
I hope that we realize the importance of Gandhiji’s words and try to direct our life towards a path of simplicity, peace and non-violence.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Human Behaviour and Depression
Each one of us has his or her own personality and several characteristics that we believe are unique to us, but human behavior is not controlled by our will. Behavioural programs that work automatically according to the stimuli that we receive from the environment are the primary controllers of human behavior. The human being is an animal and his rationale is not active most of the time. On the contrary, the majority of our decisions and actions are made based on these automatic behavioural programs rather than based on our own thoughts.
We have to also consider the existence of several characteristics in our psychic sphere that are peculiar to our psychological type. There are four psychological types which depend on the most developed of the four psychological function in each person’s psychic sphere—the four psychological functions are thoughts, feelings, sensations, and intuitions. However, since each person’s attitude is either introverted or extroverted, the psychological types become 8—4 each of introverted and extroverted types.
The introverted types tend to judge everything according to their personal opinion while the extroverted types tend to accept the general opinion about reality. Their previous disposition affects their judgement, which is always one sided, since each type completely despises what the opposite type considers important. This way, neither one nor the other can perceive all the existing points of the objective reality or of the inner reality when they judge them.
The automatic behavioural programs decide on our behalf what we will do all the time, even though we think we are doing everything we do because we ourselves have decided to do so. We can’t really perceive that our reactions are automatic and we think that we can control our behaviour completely.
However, some stimuli can make us “lose our head” and without understanding how, we may get involved in very strange situations.
So, the strong stimuli and the automatic animal reaction combined with the one-sided vision of each psychological type and with the peculiar characteristics that determine their behaviour depending on which psychological function dominates them the most, are responsible for each person’s behaviour.
This way, what happens is that each person makes several mistakes, without understanding what they are really doing. They may even do several things that are completely in opposition to their character because they are dominated by the wild side of their conscience, where psychological functions that were not developed through consciousness remain.
The result is a suffocating feeling, an unbearable and unexplainable depression that intrigues very much the person that feels this way, because they can’t understand what is wrong.
Their psychic condition becomes worse with time and some day they feel so completely lost in a labyrinth of problems that cannot be ever solved that they think about committing suicide, as if this was the unique solution left for them.
Otherwise, they start taking treatment to cure their depression and their frustration increases because they realize that they are feeling worse instead of better, because their real problems remain unsolved…
This is when the free and safe psychotherapy through dream interpretation can save their life! Only the unconscious that resides inside the human psychic sphere is very well aware of the exact mistakes each person made and how they can be corrected.
The unconscious is a free doctor that sends us very helpful messages through our dreams everyday in order to help us overcome all the problems provoked by our wild nature. Dream decoding is the safest solution for desperate people, who cannot understand why they feel so sad and cannot bear their existence. It is a miraculous solution that can save anyone, no matter how awful they may feel and however impossible the solution for their problems may appear.
However, the unconscious is a very demanding doctor and its psychotherapy depends on the patient’s cooperation. This is not a magical way through which a human being can get rid of all his or her problems without doing anything, but a miracle he himself has to create, by exactly following the wise orientation received in dreams, even when the person doesn’t agree with the suffering through which one will have to pass in order to be cured. One has to change one’s behaviour and learn how to be calm and always wise. This is like a very delicate and dangerous surgical operation. Its success is guaranteed only if the patient exactly follows the doctor’s orientation.
Prevent Depression and Craziness through the scientific method of Dream Interpretation discovered by Carl Jung and simplified by Christina Sponias, a writer who continued Jung's research in the unknown region of the human psychic sphere.
We have to also consider the existence of several characteristics in our psychic sphere that are peculiar to our psychological type. There are four psychological types which depend on the most developed of the four psychological function in each person’s psychic sphere—the four psychological functions are thoughts, feelings, sensations, and intuitions. However, since each person’s attitude is either introverted or extroverted, the psychological types become 8—4 each of introverted and extroverted types.
The introverted types tend to judge everything according to their personal opinion while the extroverted types tend to accept the general opinion about reality. Their previous disposition affects their judgement, which is always one sided, since each type completely despises what the opposite type considers important. This way, neither one nor the other can perceive all the existing points of the objective reality or of the inner reality when they judge them.
The automatic behavioural programs decide on our behalf what we will do all the time, even though we think we are doing everything we do because we ourselves have decided to do so. We can’t really perceive that our reactions are automatic and we think that we can control our behaviour completely.
However, some stimuli can make us “lose our head” and without understanding how, we may get involved in very strange situations.
So, the strong stimuli and the automatic animal reaction combined with the one-sided vision of each psychological type and with the peculiar characteristics that determine their behaviour depending on which psychological function dominates them the most, are responsible for each person’s behaviour.
This way, what happens is that each person makes several mistakes, without understanding what they are really doing. They may even do several things that are completely in opposition to their character because they are dominated by the wild side of their conscience, where psychological functions that were not developed through consciousness remain.
The result is a suffocating feeling, an unbearable and unexplainable depression that intrigues very much the person that feels this way, because they can’t understand what is wrong.
Their psychic condition becomes worse with time and some day they feel so completely lost in a labyrinth of problems that cannot be ever solved that they think about committing suicide, as if this was the unique solution left for them.
Otherwise, they start taking treatment to cure their depression and their frustration increases because they realize that they are feeling worse instead of better, because their real problems remain unsolved…
This is when the free and safe psychotherapy through dream interpretation can save their life! Only the unconscious that resides inside the human psychic sphere is very well aware of the exact mistakes each person made and how they can be corrected.
The unconscious is a free doctor that sends us very helpful messages through our dreams everyday in order to help us overcome all the problems provoked by our wild nature. Dream decoding is the safest solution for desperate people, who cannot understand why they feel so sad and cannot bear their existence. It is a miraculous solution that can save anyone, no matter how awful they may feel and however impossible the solution for their problems may appear.
However, the unconscious is a very demanding doctor and its psychotherapy depends on the patient’s cooperation. This is not a magical way through which a human being can get rid of all his or her problems without doing anything, but a miracle he himself has to create, by exactly following the wise orientation received in dreams, even when the person doesn’t agree with the suffering through which one will have to pass in order to be cured. One has to change one’s behaviour and learn how to be calm and always wise. This is like a very delicate and dangerous surgical operation. Its success is guaranteed only if the patient exactly follows the doctor’s orientation.
Prevent Depression and Craziness through the scientific method of Dream Interpretation discovered by Carl Jung and simplified by Christina Sponias, a writer who continued Jung's research in the unknown region of the human psychic sphere.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Herd Mentality
The way that many businesses and marketers strategise is perhaps counterintuitive. One important variable is frequently overlooked. This is the behaviour of people. Would it not make sense if human behaviour were to shape the formulation and execution of strategy? Surely, this is a sure-fire way to create strategies that are more robust and destined for success.
Mark Earls, an expert in human behaviour, communications and strategic thinking has explored the link between human behaviour and successful and effective strategies probably more than anyone. He is the award-winning author of several books on the subject including Herd - How to change mass behaviour by harnessing our true nature.
This book challenges our received wisdom about mass behaviour and develops an alternative model rooted in our ‘herd’ nature. Earls proposes that each individual does what they do largely because of what other people do or don’t do (even if our brain tells us other wise). In fact Mark Earls turns the idea of thinking then doing on its head and argues that people actually act and then think about it later. He would also argue that there’s not much point in spending too much time, energy or money asking people why they do what they do because, quite simply, they don’t actually know.
We like to think that we make individual decisions and that we choose our own behaviour. However, the truth is that most of the time we are heavily influenced by the behaviour of those around us. It is a herd mentality.
Mark Earls’ approach to human behaviour and strategy is completely fresh and turns conventional wisdom about what works and what doesn’t totally upside down. He has some new ideas on human behaviour, an example of which can be seen in an eBook entitled Understanding How Behaviour Shapes Strategy.
In this work - Mark Earls poses three questions which should alter the way you look at your business planning and which will hopefully develop the way you strategise. These three questions are as follows:
What is the relationship between attitudes and behaviour?
How do new ideas and habits get formed?
How do you create momentum that equates to real and lasting change?
Finding the answers to these questions you will clearly see how strategy only works if it changes people's behaviour. Whether you are dealing with staff, customers, investors or others, you first have to understand how people work and how new ideas catch on to appreciate what makes for successful business strategies.
Mark Earls, an expert in human behaviour, communications and strategic thinking has explored the link between human behaviour and successful and effective strategies probably more than anyone. He is the award-winning author of several books on the subject including Herd - How to change mass behaviour by harnessing our true nature.
This book challenges our received wisdom about mass behaviour and develops an alternative model rooted in our ‘herd’ nature. Earls proposes that each individual does what they do largely because of what other people do or don’t do (even if our brain tells us other wise). In fact Mark Earls turns the idea of thinking then doing on its head and argues that people actually act and then think about it later. He would also argue that there’s not much point in spending too much time, energy or money asking people why they do what they do because, quite simply, they don’t actually know.
We like to think that we make individual decisions and that we choose our own behaviour. However, the truth is that most of the time we are heavily influenced by the behaviour of those around us. It is a herd mentality.
Mark Earls’ approach to human behaviour and strategy is completely fresh and turns conventional wisdom about what works and what doesn’t totally upside down. He has some new ideas on human behaviour, an example of which can be seen in an eBook entitled Understanding How Behaviour Shapes Strategy.
In this work - Mark Earls poses three questions which should alter the way you look at your business planning and which will hopefully develop the way you strategise. These three questions are as follows:
What is the relationship between attitudes and behaviour?
How do new ideas and habits get formed?
How do you create momentum that equates to real and lasting change?
Finding the answers to these questions you will clearly see how strategy only works if it changes people's behaviour. Whether you are dealing with staff, customers, investors or others, you first have to understand how people work and how new ideas catch on to appreciate what makes for successful business strategies.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Aggressive Cat Behaviour – the Causes
Aggressive behaviour in our pets is normally associated with dogs. We hear of cases of dog attacks all the time in the newspapers and whenever we encounter a new dog, our first reaction is to be weary of it in case it becomes aggressive. This is not normally our first reaction to pet cats, thus sometimes resulting in a bloody hand.
Cats like all other animals will display aggression when a threatening situation arises, the difference with a cat is that there are many different reasons for their aggression and knowing what will trigger an attack will help us to understand our cats behaviour and help us to prevent the situations arising.
The first thing to understand is that it is not in the cats interest to be involved in a unnecessary fight as this could result in injury to itself which could threaten it’s survival. So in most cases aggressive behaviour is either used as a warning signal or for survival purposes such as territory rights or for food.
Aggressive behaviour can be displayed in many ways, from the straight full on attack to subtle body movements designed to be intimidating. These body signs include, fluffing of fur, arching of back, low-pitched growls, crouching and hissing. In most cases these body signals are enough to warn off the potential enemy without an actual fight being necessary.
There are many different causes for cat aggression and by understanding the reasons for the behaviour cat owners will be able to react correctly towards it.
Some cats will become aggressive during a normal petting session for no apparent reason, often shocking their owner who is totally unprepared for the attack. Often this behaviour occurs in a timid or less social cat that may find petting pleasant for a short time but then may feel trapped by the situation and warns you off with a quick bite. Understanding your cats temperament and their likes and dislikes to being petted will reduce the risk of this aggressive behaviour.
Predatory aggression arises from the cats natural instincts to hunt for prey and when the opportunity for this is reduced by being kept inside for most of the time, is redirected in attacking other animals or humans who by pouncing on hands and feet. These attacks can be headed off by placing a bell on the cats collar so that you can hear them coming and my making a loud startling noise if an attack is imminent. Stooping the cat in their tracks.
Many owners find that game time with their cat can leave their hands covered in scratches and bites. This play aggression is a learned behaviour and or rather that they haven’t learnt that when playing they should retract their claws. Using only toys to play with your cat rather than hands will reduce the likelihood of injury and any games that do result in a scratch should be stopped immediately. Over time the cat will learn that the game will stop when they bite and scratch their owners and they will stop this aggressive behaviour.
Fear is another major reason for a cat to behave aggressively. It is their normal instant reaction and can sometime manifest itself in strange ways. Trauma aggression is one of these strange manifestations of aggression and is often one of the most misunderstood behaviours. This aggression is displayed towards another animal or person who is totally unrelated to the initial reason for the fear in the cat. It can stem from hearing loud unexpected sounds, having their tail stepped on or even from another pets visit to the vets. These incidents cause stress and fear to the cat who needing to retaliate against this fear will attack the first creature or person they come across. Unfortunately this aggression can continue for some time until the cat has re-established friendly relations again with the object of their aggression.
The main reason for displays of aggression from pet cats is usually based around territory and hierocracy between other cats. As cats are not pack animals like dogs they require there own space and have to feel that they are master of that space. So cats sharing the same living space inside will often display bouts of aggression towards each other to reaffirm their status in the house, these are not usually serious fights and should be allowed to happen without our intervention, as peace should return to the home quite quickly. The outside battle for territory is constant and one that as cat owners we have to accept as apart of their natural behaviour and not one that we can prevent. In most cases these fights will result in a scratched nose or bitten paw.
Aggression in cats is always a reaction to something else and should never be seen as bad behaviour. By understanding the reason for the aggression will help us to react to it appropriately and will in the long-term help us to build a better relationship with our pets.
Cats like all other animals will display aggression when a threatening situation arises, the difference with a cat is that there are many different reasons for their aggression and knowing what will trigger an attack will help us to understand our cats behaviour and help us to prevent the situations arising.
The first thing to understand is that it is not in the cats interest to be involved in a unnecessary fight as this could result in injury to itself which could threaten it’s survival. So in most cases aggressive behaviour is either used as a warning signal or for survival purposes such as territory rights or for food.
Aggressive behaviour can be displayed in many ways, from the straight full on attack to subtle body movements designed to be intimidating. These body signs include, fluffing of fur, arching of back, low-pitched growls, crouching and hissing. In most cases these body signals are enough to warn off the potential enemy without an actual fight being necessary.
There are many different causes for cat aggression and by understanding the reasons for the behaviour cat owners will be able to react correctly towards it.
Some cats will become aggressive during a normal petting session for no apparent reason, often shocking their owner who is totally unprepared for the attack. Often this behaviour occurs in a timid or less social cat that may find petting pleasant for a short time but then may feel trapped by the situation and warns you off with a quick bite. Understanding your cats temperament and their likes and dislikes to being petted will reduce the risk of this aggressive behaviour.
Predatory aggression arises from the cats natural instincts to hunt for prey and when the opportunity for this is reduced by being kept inside for most of the time, is redirected in attacking other animals or humans who by pouncing on hands and feet. These attacks can be headed off by placing a bell on the cats collar so that you can hear them coming and my making a loud startling noise if an attack is imminent. Stooping the cat in their tracks.
Many owners find that game time with their cat can leave their hands covered in scratches and bites. This play aggression is a learned behaviour and or rather that they haven’t learnt that when playing they should retract their claws. Using only toys to play with your cat rather than hands will reduce the likelihood of injury and any games that do result in a scratch should be stopped immediately. Over time the cat will learn that the game will stop when they bite and scratch their owners and they will stop this aggressive behaviour.
Fear is another major reason for a cat to behave aggressively. It is their normal instant reaction and can sometime manifest itself in strange ways. Trauma aggression is one of these strange manifestations of aggression and is often one of the most misunderstood behaviours. This aggression is displayed towards another animal or person who is totally unrelated to the initial reason for the fear in the cat. It can stem from hearing loud unexpected sounds, having their tail stepped on or even from another pets visit to the vets. These incidents cause stress and fear to the cat who needing to retaliate against this fear will attack the first creature or person they come across. Unfortunately this aggression can continue for some time until the cat has re-established friendly relations again with the object of their aggression.
The main reason for displays of aggression from pet cats is usually based around territory and hierocracy between other cats. As cats are not pack animals like dogs they require there own space and have to feel that they are master of that space. So cats sharing the same living space inside will often display bouts of aggression towards each other to reaffirm their status in the house, these are not usually serious fights and should be allowed to happen without our intervention, as peace should return to the home quite quickly. The outside battle for territory is constant and one that as cat owners we have to accept as apart of their natural behaviour and not one that we can prevent. In most cases these fights will result in a scratched nose or bitten paw.
Aggression in cats is always a reaction to something else and should never be seen as bad behaviour. By understanding the reason for the aggression will help us to react to it appropriately and will in the long-term help us to build a better relationship with our pets.
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Abnormal Psychology - Human Behaviour
Common psychologists simply describe the psychological diseases and their manifestations. However, through dream interpretation you have a clear explanation of why your disease appeared in your psyche and more importantly, how you can be cured and stop having abnormal behaviour.
What is normal is not always what is balanced and really good for each person, but abnormal behaviour is certainly far from the known behavioural patterns and causes damage to the person and their environment.
A wild and violent conscience is inherent in the human psyche . I discovered this when I continued Carl Jung's neglected research in the dark region of the psyche through dream interpretation. The human being cannot have a balanced behavior, even when one follows the common behavioural patterns of society, which are considered normal.
When we observe abnormal behaviour and we try to understand its psychology and how we can eliminate what causes problems, we observe that the wild conscience invades the human part, with several strange ideas, sensations and feelings. This is how the craziness inherent in the primitive conscience starts causing violent behaviour in the human side, and the person becomes aggressive.
This invasion can have many forms and appear camouflaged in many guises. The first signs of the invasion are usually the appearance of fear and suspicion. Neurotic patients are afraid of other human beings.
The craziness existent in the anti-conscience is a result of the disorganized development of the conscience since its formation. In order to reach a stage where the conscience would be happy, it would have to work very hard and organize its reactions, but it has not been programmed and it was developed without planning, which is why the result was the formation of chaos.
The unconscious psychic sphere that creates dreams is a completely developed human conscience that reached sanctity and can cure us from the craziness inherent in our psychic spheres. Once cured, we will develop all our capacities, be peaceful and always do what is good for us and our community.
The wild anti-conscience and the wise unconscious are constantly fighting in our psyche. The anti-conscience wants to destroy our human conscience, while the wise unconscious tries to save and develop our human conscience to the fullest, so that we may live free of the horrors of craziness.
Psychological health, balance and wisdom can be found only in goodness, forgiveness and piety. However, the human being doesn't forgive one's enemies and is totally cruel in front of those who need support and help.
The behaviour that is considered normal is actually not healthy because we are selfish, and selfishness is pure craziness. The wild anti-conscience manages to influence and invade the conscience using the person's ego as a channel.
Only when the human being learns how to be sensitive and reasonable will one live peacefully and happily, having a truly balanced and wise behaviour.
We need guidance to cultivate sensitivity and develop all the psychological functions, since three of them do not function as they should and only one psychological function dominates our psychic spheres. The wise unconscious knows exactly how to help us and this is why it sends us messages through dreams.
These messages are incomprehensible for the conscience because they could be distorted by the anti-conscience. This fact proves that there are two parts in the human conscience and one of them shall not understand what the unconscious tells the human part because these are instructions about how to transform the wild part in human.
If the wild conscience learned what the unconscious explains to the human side, it would distort these messages. This is why you have to learn how to interpret your dreams, in the same way you learn how to translate one language to another.
I greatly simplified Carl Jung's method of dream interpretation, which is the only accurate one, and now you can easily learn how to decipher the mysterious messages of your dreams, so that you'll be able to develop all your capacities and live happily, having a balanced and wise behaviour.
What is normal is not always what is balanced and really good for each person, but abnormal behaviour is certainly far from the known behavioural patterns and causes damage to the person and their environment.
A wild and violent conscience is inherent in the human psyche . I discovered this when I continued Carl Jung's neglected research in the dark region of the psyche through dream interpretation. The human being cannot have a balanced behavior, even when one follows the common behavioural patterns of society, which are considered normal.
When we observe abnormal behaviour and we try to understand its psychology and how we can eliminate what causes problems, we observe that the wild conscience invades the human part, with several strange ideas, sensations and feelings. This is how the craziness inherent in the primitive conscience starts causing violent behaviour in the human side, and the person becomes aggressive.
This invasion can have many forms and appear camouflaged in many guises. The first signs of the invasion are usually the appearance of fear and suspicion. Neurotic patients are afraid of other human beings.
The craziness existent in the anti-conscience is a result of the disorganized development of the conscience since its formation. In order to reach a stage where the conscience would be happy, it would have to work very hard and organize its reactions, but it has not been programmed and it was developed without planning, which is why the result was the formation of chaos.
The unconscious psychic sphere that creates dreams is a completely developed human conscience that reached sanctity and can cure us from the craziness inherent in our psychic spheres. Once cured, we will develop all our capacities, be peaceful and always do what is good for us and our community.
The wild anti-conscience and the wise unconscious are constantly fighting in our psyche. The anti-conscience wants to destroy our human conscience, while the wise unconscious tries to save and develop our human conscience to the fullest, so that we may live free of the horrors of craziness.
Psychological health, balance and wisdom can be found only in goodness, forgiveness and piety. However, the human being doesn't forgive one's enemies and is totally cruel in front of those who need support and help.
The behaviour that is considered normal is actually not healthy because we are selfish, and selfishness is pure craziness. The wild anti-conscience manages to influence and invade the conscience using the person's ego as a channel.
Only when the human being learns how to be sensitive and reasonable will one live peacefully and happily, having a truly balanced and wise behaviour.
We need guidance to cultivate sensitivity and develop all the psychological functions, since three of them do not function as they should and only one psychological function dominates our psychic spheres. The wise unconscious knows exactly how to help us and this is why it sends us messages through dreams.
These messages are incomprehensible for the conscience because they could be distorted by the anti-conscience. This fact proves that there are two parts in the human conscience and one of them shall not understand what the unconscious tells the human part because these are instructions about how to transform the wild part in human.
If the wild conscience learned what the unconscious explains to the human side, it would distort these messages. This is why you have to learn how to interpret your dreams, in the same way you learn how to translate one language to another.
I greatly simplified Carl Jung's method of dream interpretation, which is the only accurate one, and now you can easily learn how to decipher the mysterious messages of your dreams, so that you'll be able to develop all your capacities and live happily, having a balanced and wise behaviour.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Random Behaviour in the Stockmarket
Over the years there have been many research projects which aimed to find out if market action was random or whether there was proof that it could be predicted on a regular basis. If you are trading the stockmarket, there would be no point in playing the game if it was purely random, and various important papers have shown a distinct repetition of patterns both in price and time cycles, which effectively confirm that market action is not random.
Charts often exhibit similar pattern behaviour in indices, forex, treasury bonds and commodities, aswell as share prices. Nevertheless, there are times when action does appear haphazard, and one explanation for this is what is called the ‘random walk theory’.
Random walks and efficient markets
There have been three main works of note which attempted to ‘explain’ random action. In 1973 Burton Malkiel wrote "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", which has become one of the most widely known investment works. The book expounded on his stock market theory in which he stated that the past movement or direction of the price of a stock or overall market could not be used to predict its future movement.
This was an extension of work carried out twenty years before, when Maurice Kendall put forward a theory that stock price fluctuations are independent of each other and have the same probability distribution, but that over a period of time, prices maintained an upward trend.
It all comes down to how ‘efficient’ the market is viewed to be, and “The Efficient Market Hypothesis” evolved in the 1960s from a Ph.D. dissertation by Eugene Fama. EMH stated that at any given time, security prices fully reflected all available information, which is a fairly radical statement.
His view was that in an active market that included many well informed and intelligent investors, securities would be appropriately priced. They would reflect all available information, and if the market was efficient, no information or analysis could be expected to result in outperformance of an appropriate benchmark. In the market, there were large numbers of competing players, with each trying to predict future market values of individual securities, and where important current information was almost freely available to all participants.
This would lead to a situation where current prices of individual securities already reflected the effects of information based both on events that have already occurred and on events which were expected to take place in the future.
Trying to dismiss technical and fundamental analysis
EMH was seen to have three forms:
The "Weak" form asserted that all past market prices and data were fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, technical analysis was of no use.
The "Semistrong" form asserted that all publicly available information was fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, fundamental analysis was of no use.
The "Strong" form asserted that all information was fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, even insider information was of no use.
Those three forms effectively dismiss all analysis as futile, whether it be technical or fundamental. Obviously when a trader takes a position, this is based on a view of mispricing in their favour, and in this respect there have been many papers proving that the market is indeed not random. A glance at chart books from the 1970s for instance often shows remarkably similar price action to that seen on current charts, and again similar patterns are often visible to forex and commodity traders.
The other view – the market is not random
A cursory glance at the long term performance of many consistent money managers would indicate that the idea of a purely random market is nonsense. There are many examples of traders who have not only made money in both bull and bear markets, but regularly beaten their respective benchmarks. To do this over a decade or more indicates more than a random distribution of performance, or indeed luck.
The problem in trying to prove that the market is not random is simply that an approach that might work for a statistically valid period of analysis may suddenly become useless once it is widely known. This is because the edge the trader might have had in pricing will be negated if many more participants influence the opening and closing prices that are achieved by their participation. The great majority of studies of technical theories have found the strategies to be completely useless in predicting very long term prices of securities, but there continue to be technical anomalies that occur regularly, and it is up to the smart trader to constantly search for that edge to ‘beat’ the market.
The other point that has been put forward by proponents of efficient markets is that if one takes a random distribution of fund managers, it is not possible for more than half to beat the respective benchmark. Because of costs, using an active manager will on average do less well than simply matching the benchmark using a passive or tracking fund. Whilst this cannot be disputed, there are two important points: first, using a long-side only tracking fund for instance will cause losses in a bear market. Second, successful money or fund mangers tend on average to continue to beat their benchmark over time, and it is possible to have the talent to beat the market in the long term. Just ask Warren Buffett.
Proof the market is not random – a simple comparison against a major theory
The New York Times on 6th Sept 1998 noted a study that was published in the US Journal of Finance by Stephen Brown of New York University, William Goetzmann of Yale, and Alok Kumar of the University of Notre Dame. They tested the widely known Dow Theory system against a simple buy-and-hold strategy for the period from 1929 to 1998 on the US stockmarket.
Over the 70-year period, the Dow Theory system outperformed the buy and hold strategy by about 2% per year. In addition, the former’s portfolio carried significantly less risk, and risk-adjusted, the margin of outperformance would have been even greater.
Another way of looking at it is to consider the markets both efficient and predictable. In a debunk of the earlier work, Lo and Mackinlay’s “A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street” book concluded that in reality, markets were neither perfectly efficient nor completely inefficient. All markets were efficient to a certain extent, some more so than others. Rather than being an issue of black or white, market efficiency was more a matter of shades of grey, and in markets with substantial impairments of efficiency, more knowledgeable investors could strive to outperform less knowledgeable ones.
Conclusion
Just like predicting the weather, which still cannot be done with any great accuracy over more than a few days, it is difficult and almost impossible to predict future share prices. There are however patterns of human behaviour which are predictable, whether these correspond to the cycle of business investment and profits, how fear and greed manifests itself, and how traders react to outside news events.
All these inputs make it possible for a dedicated CFD trader to achieve outperformance by exploiting regular market anomalies and seeking out the best probability trades.
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Charts often exhibit similar pattern behaviour in indices, forex, treasury bonds and commodities, aswell as share prices. Nevertheless, there are times when action does appear haphazard, and one explanation for this is what is called the ‘random walk theory’.
Random walks and efficient markets
There have been three main works of note which attempted to ‘explain’ random action. In 1973 Burton Malkiel wrote "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", which has become one of the most widely known investment works. The book expounded on his stock market theory in which he stated that the past movement or direction of the price of a stock or overall market could not be used to predict its future movement.
This was an extension of work carried out twenty years before, when Maurice Kendall put forward a theory that stock price fluctuations are independent of each other and have the same probability distribution, but that over a period of time, prices maintained an upward trend.
It all comes down to how ‘efficient’ the market is viewed to be, and “The Efficient Market Hypothesis” evolved in the 1960s from a Ph.D. dissertation by Eugene Fama. EMH stated that at any given time, security prices fully reflected all available information, which is a fairly radical statement.
His view was that in an active market that included many well informed and intelligent investors, securities would be appropriately priced. They would reflect all available information, and if the market was efficient, no information or analysis could be expected to result in outperformance of an appropriate benchmark. In the market, there were large numbers of competing players, with each trying to predict future market values of individual securities, and where important current information was almost freely available to all participants.
This would lead to a situation where current prices of individual securities already reflected the effects of information based both on events that have already occurred and on events which were expected to take place in the future.
Trying to dismiss technical and fundamental analysis
EMH was seen to have three forms:
The "Weak" form asserted that all past market prices and data were fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, technical analysis was of no use.
The "Semistrong" form asserted that all publicly available information was fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, fundamental analysis was of no use.
The "Strong" form asserted that all information was fully reflected in securities prices. In other words, even insider information was of no use.
Those three forms effectively dismiss all analysis as futile, whether it be technical or fundamental. Obviously when a trader takes a position, this is based on a view of mispricing in their favour, and in this respect there have been many papers proving that the market is indeed not random. A glance at chart books from the 1970s for instance often shows remarkably similar price action to that seen on current charts, and again similar patterns are often visible to forex and commodity traders.
The other view – the market is not random
A cursory glance at the long term performance of many consistent money managers would indicate that the idea of a purely random market is nonsense. There are many examples of traders who have not only made money in both bull and bear markets, but regularly beaten their respective benchmarks. To do this over a decade or more indicates more than a random distribution of performance, or indeed luck.
The problem in trying to prove that the market is not random is simply that an approach that might work for a statistically valid period of analysis may suddenly become useless once it is widely known. This is because the edge the trader might have had in pricing will be negated if many more participants influence the opening and closing prices that are achieved by their participation. The great majority of studies of technical theories have found the strategies to be completely useless in predicting very long term prices of securities, but there continue to be technical anomalies that occur regularly, and it is up to the smart trader to constantly search for that edge to ‘beat’ the market.
The other point that has been put forward by proponents of efficient markets is that if one takes a random distribution of fund managers, it is not possible for more than half to beat the respective benchmark. Because of costs, using an active manager will on average do less well than simply matching the benchmark using a passive or tracking fund. Whilst this cannot be disputed, there are two important points: first, using a long-side only tracking fund for instance will cause losses in a bear market. Second, successful money or fund mangers tend on average to continue to beat their benchmark over time, and it is possible to have the talent to beat the market in the long term. Just ask Warren Buffett.
Proof the market is not random – a simple comparison against a major theory
The New York Times on 6th Sept 1998 noted a study that was published in the US Journal of Finance by Stephen Brown of New York University, William Goetzmann of Yale, and Alok Kumar of the University of Notre Dame. They tested the widely known Dow Theory system against a simple buy-and-hold strategy for the period from 1929 to 1998 on the US stockmarket.
Over the 70-year period, the Dow Theory system outperformed the buy and hold strategy by about 2% per year. In addition, the former’s portfolio carried significantly less risk, and risk-adjusted, the margin of outperformance would have been even greater.
Another way of looking at it is to consider the markets both efficient and predictable. In a debunk of the earlier work, Lo and Mackinlay’s “A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street” book concluded that in reality, markets were neither perfectly efficient nor completely inefficient. All markets were efficient to a certain extent, some more so than others. Rather than being an issue of black or white, market efficiency was more a matter of shades of grey, and in markets with substantial impairments of efficiency, more knowledgeable investors could strive to outperform less knowledgeable ones.
Conclusion
Just like predicting the weather, which still cannot be done with any great accuracy over more than a few days, it is difficult and almost impossible to predict future share prices. There are however patterns of human behaviour which are predictable, whether these correspond to the cycle of business investment and profits, how fear and greed manifests itself, and how traders react to outside news events.
All these inputs make it possible for a dedicated CFD trader to achieve outperformance by exploiting regular market anomalies and seeking out the best probability trades.
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